Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position & Closed Debates
Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move after taking over in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is starting to loosen once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Strategy & Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.
But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
